Core Tip: Before the Spring Festival holiday, the price of glass futures fluctuated sharply from February 15 high of 1518 yuan / ton to February 12 of 1435 yuan / ton. At present, the manufacturers inventory is high, if the traders can not quickly go to inventory, then the downward trend of the glass price trend officially came.
Before the Spring Festival holiday, the price of glass futures fluctuated sharply from the high of 1518 yuan per ton on February 8 to 1435 yuan per ton on February 12. At present, the manufacturers inventory is high, if the traders can not quickly go to inventory, then the downward trend of the glass price trend officially came.
Demand is weakened in the long cycle
As of December 2017, the nationwide real estate turnover slipped to 7.7% YoY, while the completed housing area also dropped to -4.4% YoY, while the newly started real estate area could still reach 7% YoY in total. Real estate in the new area and turnover continue to rise in the pattern, the completion of real estate area but there is a year-on-year decline, indicating the completion of real estate projects slowdown. The release of glass demand is approaching the completion stage, which has led to limited demand for glass in the future.
From the perspective of the glass industry, as of early February 2018, the actual capacity of the glass industry was 912 million boxes, a slight decrease of 1.7% from the actual production capacity of 928 million boxes in the same period of 2017. Over the same period, the glass manufacturer inventory was 32.98 million heavy boxes, basic and the same period in 2017. Slight decline in output, stocks remained flat, indicating that demand has not increased, or even shrinking. However, the glass market price and production profit soared. At the beginning of 2018, the average price in North China increased by 10.6% over the same period in 2017, while that in East China increased by 12.7%, that in Central China increased by 16.2%, that in South China by 8.6%, and that by 2018 In early February, the gross profit of coal production line nationwide reached 42%, up 31.5% over the same period of 2017. Market outlook weaker demand, empty profits will be eaten.
Shahe spot trading temporarily not yet started
At present, the trading of Shahe spot market in Hebei has not yet fully started. According to preliminary estimates, on February 22, the glass stocks of Shahe's manufacturers reached 115,000, an increase of 33,000% from the 86,000 before and after the Spring Festival holiday in 2017, up by 29,000 units. Since the start of the downstream did not resume, the glass manufacturer's stock will continue to accumulate.
Despite the high inventory of manufacturers, but its quite price-fixing attitude. Since the fourth quarter of 2017, apart from occasional short-term concessions to downstream traders, Shahe manufacturers basically did not reduce the ex-works prices by the end of February 2018. In early February 2018, manufacturers introduced the winter storage policy, insured traders to the end of March, some manufacturers have 50 yuan / ton of none other. This policy stimulated the replenishment enthusiasm of some traders.
With the resumption of work in the spring approaching, there will be no replenishment of the traders before the Spring Festival will gradually admission replenishment. In addition, the terminal processing market of glass original stock at a lower level, manufacturers and traders generally expect terminal manufacturers will have some replenishment action.
Traders to the stock rhythm is the key
The gradual decline in factory inventories after the resumption of work is a high probability event, the terminal manufacturers gradually purchase the original film is also a high probability event, the pace of the glass market depends on the traders to the stock progress.
Earlier, some traders' winter storage to some extent support the manufacturers quite the price behavior, but after the resumption of work in spring, if the traders can not quickly clear their own inventory of winter storage, on the one hand will delay the procurement of the latter, leading to Glass factory inventories rose further, on the other hand traders' price promotions will also affect the overall market sentiment, making the market fall into the dilemma of buying or not buying.
At present, the manufacturers inventory is high, if the traders can not quickly go to inventory, then the downward trend of the glass price trend officially came.